肯尼亚北部非洲水牛的息地适合性建模,采用整体方法
Marion Warau Mwaniki1,2, Moses Murimi Ngigi3, Bartholomew Thiong'o Kuria3,4
1Institute of Geomatics, GIS and Remote Sensing, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, Nyeri, Kenya. marion.mwaniki@gmail.com.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|July 1, 2025
概括
由于气候变化和人类活动,非洲水牛的息地正在减少. 这项研究模拟了合适的息地,揭示了对保护工作至关重要的高潜力区域的显著减少.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 种类分布建模对于野生动物保护至关重要,特别是面临息地丧失的非洲水牛.
- 气候变化和人类活动对生物多样性构成重大威胁,需要准确的息地评估.
研究的目的:
- 采用集体方法为非洲水牛建模适合的息地.
- 评估随着时间的推移 (2009-2023) 对湿季 (MAM) 和干季 (JAS) 适合性息地的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用的生物气候变量,土地使用数据,NDVI,NDBI,斜率,以及靠近定居点和水域.
- 采用集体模型 (最大,随机森林,支矢量机) 来预测息地适宜性.
- 进行多对线性分析以确保变量的独立性.
主要成果:
- 温度和降水是关键的预测变量.
- 在2009年至2023年期间观察到的高潜力和中等潜力水牛息地的显著减少.
- 低潜力息地区域的增加,表明息地退化.
结论:
- 整体模型在预测非洲水牛息地适宜性方面表现出高准确度 (AUC ≥ 0.96).
- 研究结果强调,迫切需要制定保护战略,以减轻非洲水牛的息地丧失.
- 结果为环境变化下的知情土地利用规划和保护管理提供了关键数据.
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