用时间嵌入时间卷积网络对光伏功率的短期预测
Jingxin Wang1,2, Guohan Li1, Jin Gu3
1Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, 201210, China.
Scientific reports
|July 1, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了时间嵌入的时间卷积网络 (ETCN),用于准确的光伏发电预测. 该ETCN模型通过整合空间和时间数据来增强预测,减少冗余和偏差.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 机器学习用于时间序列分析.
- 电网中的人工智能
背景情况:
- 准确的光伏发电预测对于电网稳定性和能源管理至关重要.
- 传统的多变量时间序列预测方法存在信息冗余和数据泄漏问题,导致预测偏差.
- 整合空间和时间特征是提高光伏预测准确性的关键.
研究的目的:
- 引入一个创新的模型,即时间嵌入的时间卷积网络 (ETCN),用于增强光伏发电预测.
- 解决现有方法的局限性,包括信息冗余和多变量时间序列中的数据泄漏.
- 通过有效地整合空间和时间特征来提高预测准确性.
主要方法:
- 一种基于热图的特征选择方法,以识别和优先考虑具有影响力的特征,减少计算复杂性.
- 一个新的嵌入式架构,利用多层感知子来捕获周期和非周期时间序列信息.
- 一个融合策略,通过一个深度卷积神经网络 (DCNN) 结合空间和时间特征,与剩余连接和双向长短期记忆 (BiLSTM) 网络.
主要成果:
- 在Trina数据集上,ETCN模型表现出卓越的性能,RMSE为0.5683,MAE为0.3388,[公式:参见文本]为0.9439.
- 在Sungrid数据集上,ETCN模型取得了最高的结果,RMSE为0.1351,MAE为0.0964,[公式:参见文本]为0.9894.
- 这些结果表明ETCN模型在不同的数据集中具有卓越的准确性和有效性.
结论:
- 该ETCN模型有效地整合了空间和时间特征,以改善光伏发电预测.
- 拟议的功能选择和嵌入架构可以减少信息冗余和数据泄漏.
- 对于复杂的光伏预测挑战,ETCN模型提供了强大而准确的解决方案.
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