在未来的气候变化场景下,利用优化的MaxEnt模型预测中国可能适合的Bletilla条纹息地
Ming Luo1,2, Pingfei Yang1,2, Lili Yang1,2
1Guizhou Institute of Crop Germplasm Resources, Guizhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Guiyang, 550006, China.
Scientific reports
|July 2, 2025
概括
预计由于气候变化,中国的白条纹息地将缩小并向北移动. 这项研究确定了关键的环境因素,并提供了保护和种植这种有价值的药用植物的关键数据.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 药理学是指药理学,即药理学是指药理学.
背景情况:
- 宝贵的传统中医药Bletilla striata在种植方面面临挑战,原因是不科学的息地选择,影响了产量和质量.
- 了解影响白条纹分布的环境因素对于其在中国的可持续发展和保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用MaxEnt模型,根据当前和未来的气候变化场景预测Bletilla条纹的潜在息地.
- 确定影响白条纹分布的主要环境因素及其关键值.
- 为保护,选择和种植Bletilla striata资源提供科学指导.
主要方法:
- 利用了中国Bletilla条纹的269个分布记录和15个环境因素.
- 采用优化的MaxEnt模型来进行物种分布建模.
- 在四个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景和三个时间段 (当前,2050年代,2070年代) 下模拟息地分布.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出高的预测准确度,且过拟合的情况最小.
- 太阳辐射,年温度范围和平均日间范围被确定为影响白条纹分布的主要因素.
- 目前适合息地的面积为30.07×10^5平方公里,主要位于中国南部;未来的预测显示,息地将大幅减少并向北转移.
结论:
- 预计在未来的气候变化下,Bletilla striata适合的息地将收缩并向北移动.
- 该研究强调了太阳辐射,年温度范围和平均日间范围在息地适宜性中的关键作用.
- 这些发现为战略性Bletilla条纹资源管理,保护工作和优化种植实践提供了必要的见解.
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