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恒河三角洲沿海地区的热生物气候转变:CMIP6多模型组合的见解
H M Touhidul Islam1,2, Mohammed Mainuddin3, Abu Affan4
1Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh.
Scientific reports
|July 2, 2025
概括
未来的气候变化将大大提高甘河三角洲的温度和改变热模式,威胁到生物多样性和农业. 迫切需要采取适应性战略,以在这个脆弱的沿海地区建立弹性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 热生物气候指标 (TBIs) 对于评估气候变化对生态系统和人类福祉的影响至关重要.
- 甘河三角洲是生物多样性的热点,由于其海岸脆弱性,它面临着气候变化带来的重大风险.
研究的目的:
- 在各种CMIP6共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下,预测未来在甘河三角洲内的11个TBI的变化.
- 评估这些热变迁对生物多样性,农业和沿海社区的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了16个合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 全球气候模型的多模型组合.
- 分析了三个排放场景的预测:SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5,重点关注关键的TBIs.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,每年气温将显著上升,在各种情景中从0.71-4.65°C不等.
- 预计日间温度范围和同热度的下降,表明热稳定性降低.
- 与最潮湿的月份相比,预计最干燥的月份的变暖将更加明显.
结论:
- 甘河三角洲的热变化对生物多样性,农业生产力和沿海人口构成重大威胁.
- 适应性战略,包括潮河流管理和红树林植林,对于增强区域性至关重要.
- 这项研究强调了对气候敏感政策的关键需求,以保护这个生态和经济上重要的三角洲.
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