一个可解释的框架,用于TBM挖掘中的风险管理,使用专家诱导与模糊集合理论集成的专家诱导
Kibeom Kwon1, Minkyu Kang2, Young Jin Shin3
1Future and Fusion Lab of Architectural, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea.
Scientific reports
|July 2, 2025
概括
本研究引入了道钻机 (TBM) 挖掘的新风险管理方法,改进了对不确定性和并发不利因素的解释,以便更好地做出决策.
科学领域:
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 在道钻机 (TBM) 挖掘中进行最佳决策需要强有力的风险管理.
- 现有的方法在解释TBM挖掘不确定性和管理多个并发的不利因素方面面临挑战.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个可解释的TBM挖掘风险管理方法.
- 为了有效地解决TBM运营中的不确定性和并发不利因素.
主要方法:
- 专家诱导框架与模糊的集合理论相结合.
- 专家信任水平在多个类别的分布.
- 将影响,概率和风险作为分布的呈现,以便进行全面的解释.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法应用于泥屏蔽TBM道项目.
- 由于存在重大不确定性,大多数分布没有显示单一的主导类或风险水平.
- 该方法有效地解决了由并发因素增加的概率和风险,与单个因素分析不同.
结论:
- 对专家判断趋势的全面解释对于理解不确定性分布至关重要.
- 开发的方法通过考虑并发因素和不确定性来增强风险评估.
- 即使是微小的专家输入也可以通过详细的解释显著地影响风险水平的确定.
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