使用深度学习预测埃塞俄比亚的结核病:迈向可持续发展目标的进展从全球疾病负担的证据1990-2021年
Zinabu Bekele Tadese1, Fetlework Gubena Arage2,3, Tigist Kifle Tsegaw2,3
1Department of Health Informatics, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Samara University, Semera, Ethiopia. zinabubekele12@gmail.com.
BMC infectious diseases
|July 2, 2025
概括
埃塞俄比亚的结核病 (TB) 发病率正在下降,但不太可能达到2030年结核病战略目标. 加强预防,诊断和治疗对于控制埃塞俄比亚的结核病至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 仍然是一个重大的全球健康威胁,也是全球传染病死亡率的第二大原因.
- 埃塞俄比亚面临着相当大的结核病负担,将其列为主要致病原因和第二大死亡原因.
- 国家结核病终结战略的目标是到2030年将结核病发病率降低90%.
研究的目的:
- 用先进的时间序列模型预测埃塞俄比亚的结核病发病率.
- 为结核病控制和实现可持续发展目标的进展提供支持干预措施的证据.
- 分析长期趋势并预测埃塞俄比亚未来的结核病例.
主要方法:
- 全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据库 (1990-2021) 的二次数据分析.
- 基于长短期记忆 (LSTM) 的模型的实施,包括多步 LSTM 和混合 ARIMA+LSTM,用于预测.
- 使用MAE,RMSE,MAPE和sMAPE等指标进行模型性能评估.
主要成果:
- 埃塞俄比亚的结核病发病率呈下降趋势,从1990年到2021年,从每10万人中的466.93例降至185.53例.
- 多步式LSTM模型表现出优异的性能,MAE为5.53和RMSE为6.74.
- 预测显示,到2030年,这一数字将略有下降,达到每10万人中179例,达到每10万人中179例.
结论:
- 埃塞俄比亚目前还没有达到"终结结核病战略"的到2030年减少90%的结核病发病率的目标.
- 需要加强结核病控制策略,重点关注预防,早期诊断和治疗.
- 针对高风险和脆弱人群的有针对性的干预措施对于有效的结核病消除工作至关重要.
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