一种诺莫格拉姆模型,用于预测食道癌患者经历食道切除术后的术后妄想
Chen Chen1, Jiayu Wang2, Yang Li3
1Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Affiliated Huaian No. 1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, 223300, China.
BMC cancer
|July 2, 2025
概括
经过手术的食道癌 (EC) 患者的术后痴呆症 (POD) 可以使用新的诺米图进行预测. 该工具确定了关键的风险因素,以帮助临床医生有效预测和管理POD.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 手术并发症 手术并发症
背景情况:
- 手术后痴呆症 (POD) 是因为食道癌 (EC) 的食道切除术后的一种严重并发症.
- 确定POD的预测因素对于患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在接受食道切除术的EC患者中识别POD的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证一个用于预测POD发生的nomogram模型.
主要方法:
- 最小绝对收缩和选择操作员 (LASSO) 回归.
- 多变量逻辑回归分析.
- 开发和验证一个名ogram模型.
主要成果:
- 总共分析了924名EC患者,其中16.99%患有POD.
- 确定的独立风险因素包括晚年,特定药物,开放式手术以及各种手术前/手术后营养和炎症标志物 (例如,专蛋白,PNI,NLR,PWR).
- 诺米图表表现出良好的预测能力 (C指数:0.832) 和校准,决策曲线分析表明临床效用.
结论:
- 一个经过验证的诺莫格拉姆模型可以有效地预测经过食道切除术的EC患者的POD.
- 这种工具有助于临床医生预测POD风险,并可能改善患者的治疗结果.
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