膝关节关节炎在中国和全球的负担:1990-2045年
Mingyang Li1, Qilin Xia1, Qilong Nie1
1The Eighth Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Foshan, Guangdong, 528051, China.
BMC musculoskeletal disorders
|July 2, 2025
概括
膝关节骨关节炎 (KOA) 的负担在全球和中国因衰老和肥胖而增加. 专注于预防肥胖和关节健康的有针对性的公共卫生战略至关重要,特别是对于妇女和老龄化人口来说.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 膝关节骨关节炎 (KOA) 是一个重大的全球健康挑战,患病率,发病率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 增加.
- 全球肥胖率上升和人口老龄化加剧了KOA负担,给医疗保健系统带来了压力.
- 中国面临着迫切的KOA问题,原因是其人口快速老龄化和肥胖率的增加,加之是女性患病率更高.
研究的目的:
- 通过2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 研究的数据,评估全球和中国当前的KOA负担.
- 分析导致KOA负担的因素,包括人口老龄化,增长和流行病学变化.
- 使用贝叶斯年龄-周期-队列 (BAPC) 模型,预测KOA流行,发病率和DALY到2045年的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用的全球疾病负担 (GBD) 2021数据库用于KOA指标 (流行率,发病率,DALY).
- 使用分解分析来量化人口老龄化,增长和流行病学转变的影响.
- 应用贝叶斯年龄-周期-队列 (BAPC) 模型与集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似 (INLA) 进行未来趋势预测.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2021年,KOA负担在全球和中国显著增加,女性的比例更高.
- 全球人口增长是主要的驱动因素,而人口老龄化在中国更为显著.
- 预测显示,到2045年,KOA负担将继续增加,区域差异显著,与高BMI相关的DALY增加.
结论:
- 由于老龄化和肥胖,KOA构成了日益严重的全球健康挑战,需要量身定制的干预措施.
- 中国的KOA负担受到人口老龄化的重大影响,需要针对其老年人口制定有针对性的战略.
- 全球KOA的增加与人口扩张有关,强调综合预防策略,解决肥胖和生活方式风险,特别是在女性.
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