气候变化对跨越温度上升值和气候区的作物产量产生影响
Bao-Linh Tran1, Wei-Chun Tseng1, Chi-Chung Chen2
1Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, 145 Xingda Rd., South Dist., Taichung City, 402, Taiwan.
Scientific reports
|July 2, 2025
概括
气候变化对作物产量产生重大影响,气候变暖超过温度值,对小麦和大米造成更大的损失. 玉米产量稳步下降,干旱地区面临最严重的影响,需要全球粮食安全的适应战略.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化对全球农业生产力和粮食安全构成重大威胁.
- 了解作物产量对不同温度升高的反应,对于制定有效的适应策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化气候变化对不同温度上升场景和气候区作物产量的预期影响.
- 为了确定超越作物产量损失加剧的临界温度值.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球数据集,以现场级的过程模型模拟作物对气候场景的反应.
- 采用值回归和线性混合效应模型来分析温度对产量的影响.
- 根据Köppen气候分类系统,按气候区分类影响.
主要成果:
- 气温升高对作物产量产生负面影响,对小麦和大米来说,损失超出已确定的值.
- 在2.38°C升高之后,小麦产量损失每°C从6.1%增加到8.2%;在3.13°C升高之后,大米产量损失每°C从1.1%增加到7.1%.
- 玉米产量每摄氏度下降4.03%而没有值效应;干旱地区的不利影响最大.
结论:
- 气温上升对作物产量产生值影响,气候区之间存在显著差异.
- 适应潜力因作物和气候区而异,温带地区对大米和小麦有更高的潜力.
- 调查结果强调需要有针对性的适应战略,以减轻气候变化对全球粮食安全的影响.
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