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基于非农业化,非粒化和放弃的耕地使用变化对中国东北部的谷物潜在产量的影响

¹College of International Tourism and Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou, 570228, China. 994424@hainanu.edu.cn.

Scientific reports

|July 3, 2025

概括

农田放弃在中国东北地区的谷物潜在产量显著下降,尽管农田面积总体增加. 政策干预对于维护区域粮食安全至关重要.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.

背景情况:

中国东北部面临着粮食生产和粮食安全的挑战,原因是2000年以来的非农化,非谷物化和耕地废弃.
这些土地利用变化威胁到一个关键农业地区的谷物生产的长期可行性.

研究的目的:

分析非农业化,非谷物化和耕地放弃对中国东北部谷物潜在产量的影响.
确定GPP损失和不同省份的变化的主要驱动因素.
提出农田保护和可持续农业的未来战略.

主要方法:

使用地理信息系统 (GIS) 进行土地利用变化的空间分析.
使用统计分析来量化对谷物潜在生产 (GPP) 在网格规模的影响.
分析了2000年至2020年的土地使用数据.

主要成果:

中国东北地区的耕地面积在2000年至2020年间增加了2.10% (9,275.51平方公里),中心转向东北.
由于土地使用变化,总共损失了1,410.16×104GPP,其中耕地被遗弃是主要的驱动因素.
省级GPP损失的变化被观察到:黑龙江和内蒙古被遗弃主导,而吉林和宁经历了显著的非农业化;在宁南部注意到转换为果园.
自2000年以来,粮食作物播种的增加弥补了部分GPP损失,增加了1,134.76×104.

结论:

农田被遗弃对中国东北部的谷物潜在产量和粮食安全构成重大威胁.
需要有针对性的政策干预,包括恢复废弃的耕地,支持现代农业,管理土地置转换,提高土地利用效率,完善土地补偿和循环机制.
可持续的土地管理实践对于确保该地区的长期粮食安全至关重要.

关键词:

农田被遗弃农田被遗弃农田利用变化农田使用变化谷物潜在产量 (GPP) 谷物潜在产量非农业化的非农业化.没有颗粒化.中国东北地区的东北地区.

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