在波兰的COVID-19期间,工作缺席过多和减少:来自特定原因时间序列模型的见解
Błażej Łyszczarz1, Jakub Wojtasik2
1Department of Health Economics, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Bydgoszcz, Poland. blazej@cm.umk.pl.
Population health metrics
|July 3, 2025
概括
在波兰,COVID-19显著改变了工作缺勤率,护理和心理健康问题大幅增加,其他疾病由于医疗保健中断而下降.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19大流行,工作场所发生了广泛的干扰.
- 对特定原因的工作缺勤的影响仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 量化与波兰COVID-19相关的特定原因的过度/减少的工作缺勤.
- 分析与预期缺勤率的偏差.
主要方法:
- 在疫情前 (2012-2019) 的社会保险数据上使用时间序列分析 (季节性自回归集成移动平均值).
- 疾病组 (ICD-10章) 和护理人员的预测缺勤率.
- 将预测率与观察数据 (2020-2024) 进行比较,以确定过度/减少的缺勤.
主要成果:
- 在疫情开始时,护理缺勤率超过了五倍.
- 心理健康危机导致四季度的过度缺勤,在2020年第二季度达到54%的峰值.
- 在瘤,内分泌,消化系统疾病和伤害/中毒中观察到减少缺席,表明医疗保健获取和流动性问题.
结论:
- COVID-19 极大地改变了波兰的工作缺勤模式,尤其是在疫情初期.
- 不同的趋势反映了COVID-19的直接/间接影响和医疗保健准入中断.
- 针对疾病的具体政策对于缓解未来的健康危机和确保护理连续性至关重要.
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