美国制造的处方吗? 关税和美国的药物制造业
Mariana P Socal1,2, Maqbool Dada2,3, Tinglong Dai2,4
1Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States.
Health affairs scholar
|July 3, 2025
概括
拟议的药品进口关税可能会对美国药品制造产生不同的影响,对于品牌药物和仿制药物. 由于成本,仿制药的生产可能会继续在海外进行,而品牌药物可能会受到重新分配的激励.
科学领域:
- 制药经济学 制药经济学
- 卫生政策分析 卫生政策分析
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
背景情况:
- 美国制药进口商品的关税正在考虑中.
- 了解对国内制药业的经济影响至关重要.
- 对品牌和仿制药行业的影响差异需要审查.
研究的目的:
- 分析拟议关税对美国制药进口产品的潜在影响.
- 为了区分关税对国内品牌制造与仿制药制造的影响.
- 探讨对不同类型药物的生产进行重置的激励因素.
主要方法:
- 制造成本和利率的经济分析.
- 评估供应链依赖性和国家特定风险.
- 模拟搬迁激励与生产成本差异的模型.
- 考虑政策不确定性和潜在的市场反应.
主要成果:
- 仿制药制造业是劳动密集型,利微薄,因此可能会继续依赖外国供应商,除非全球价格上抵消搬迁成本.
- 由于专利断,品牌药物制造商拥有更大的定价权,为离岸生产创造了更强大的激励,包括活性药物成分 (API).
- 关税政策的不确定性可以显著影响制造商关于生产迁移的决定.
结论:
- 关税可能会不成比例地影响仿制药的可用性和定价.
- 品牌制药公司更有可能重新开始生产以减轻关税影响并利用国内API生产.
- 潜在的意外后果包括质量受损,药物短缺,价格上和报复性贸易行动.
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