使用分布式建模,标准化指数和主要组件分析对地下水干旱的描述
V Christelis1, M M Mansour1, C R Jackson1
1British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG UK.
概括
一个新的建模框架准确地描述了地下水干旱,即使没有直接测量. 它揭示了单独的降水数据对于预测地下水干旱是不可靠的,特别是在极端的热浪期间.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 水文地质学 水文地质学
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 由于观测数据有限,对地下水干旱的描述具有挑战性.
- 了解流域规模干旱动态对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个建模框架,以表征地下水干旱的情况.
- 评估英格兰南部 (1971-2004) 石墨水层的历史地下水干旱事件.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个数值地下水模型,模拟充电和地下水位波动.
- 应用标准化地下水位指数 (SGI) 来评估干旱的严重程度和持续时间.
- 在SGI和标准降水指数 (SPI) 数据上使用了主要组件分析 (PCA).
主要成果:
- 在1971-2004年间,确定了三个主要的地下水干旱事件.
- 观察到干旱严重程度和持续时间之间的空间不一致.
- PCA显示,SPI是2003年热浪期间地下水干旱的糟糕预测因素.
结论:
- 拟议的建模框架准确地捕捉了地下水干旱动态,包括极端事件期间的弹性.
- SPI和SGI之间的显著差异凸显了水文和水地质流域特征对地下水干旱的影响.
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