在泰国使用数学和经济建模优化狗群控制策略
Weerakorn Thichumpa1,2, Anuwat Wiratsudakul3, Saranath Lawpoolsri1
1Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
针对雌性狗的绝育是泰国犬种群控制和狂犬病预防的成本有效策略. 与目前的方法相比,这种方法可以显著减少狗群和医疗保健成本.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在泰国,管理狗群和预防狂犬病是关键的公共卫生问题.
- 目前的干预措施需要对成本效益和对狗种群动态的影响进行评估.
研究的目的:
- 评估泰国犬种群控制和狂犬病预防的成本有效的灭菌和疫苗接种策略.
- 评估不同绝育场景对狗种群动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用洛普布里省 (2019-2022) 的狗种群数据开发和校准了一个数学区间模型.
- 模拟了五种绝育场景,包括联合狂犬病疫苗接种和绝育计划.
主要成果:
- 针对女性室内,室外和流浪狗的绝育计划在五年内显示出超过50%的人口减少.
- 由于长期成本的降低,与目前的做法相比,发现雌性狗绝育策略可以节省成本.
结论:
- 针对雌性狗的绝育是泰国犬种群控制和狂犬病预防的有效和节省成本的策略.
- 需要更多关于人口和资源的数据来优化干预的可访问性和可行性.
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