在气候变化中预测分布:南非的整体方法
R F Motloung1, M E Chaisi2, M S Sibiya1
1Foundational Biodiversity Science, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Private Bag x101, Pretoria, South Africa.
Veterinary parasitology
|July 3, 2025
概括
气候变化正在南非扩大的息地,增加疾病风险. 需要管理策略来应对这些疾病载体对公共卫生和农业日益严重的威胁.
科学领域:
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 兽医昆虫学 在兽医昆虫学方面.
- 公共卫生监督是对公共卫生的监督.
背景情况:
- 预测疾病载体分布对于管理和监测至关重要.
- 在南非对兽医,公共卫生和经济构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 评估南非重要物种的生态利基转移.
- 根据当前和未来的气候场景,预测适合的息地.
主要方法:
- 使用R中的biomod2包 (版本4.4.2) 进行集成建模.
- 使用了六个算法与生物气候变量和仅存在的发生数据.
- 为当前 (2021-2040) 和未来 (2041-2060) 气候场景建模了物种分布模型.
主要成果:
- 预计到2060年,所有10种研究的虫物种都将经历范围的变化.
- 预计大多数物种的范围将大幅扩大,其中Rhipicephalus microplus将增长14%.
- 像Amblyomma hebraeum (10%) 和Hyalomma rufipes (9%) 这样的本地物种也显示出扩张,可能会改变疾病动态.
结论:
- 预计的范围扩大需要适应性管理策略.
- 一个全面的健康方法对于管理像R. microplus.这样的侵入性的管理至关重要.
- 这些发现支持控制计划和减轻对健康,农业和生态系统的负面影响.
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