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高频数据揭示了畜牧业适应热量的极限
Claire Palandri1, Eyal G Frank1,2,3, Ayal Kimhi4
1Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.
Science advances
|July 4, 2025
概括
极端的高温显著降低了奶牛的牛奶产量,高达10%,具有持久的影响. 目前的适应策略只能对这些气候变化对食品系统的影响提供部分保护.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 动物科学动物科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对食品系统的影响是一个关键的研究领域.
- 关键农业部门的适应战略需要进一步研究.
- 乳制品生产容易受到环境压力因素的影响,如热量.
研究的目的:
- 量化湿热对牛奶生产的影响.
- 评估奶牛养殖中的适应战略的范围和有效性.
- 了解生产力和耐热压力下的弹性之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 分析了超过3200万份跨越12年的每日牛奶生产记录.
- 牛奶生产数据与农场管理和基础设施调查数据的整合.
- 统计建模以估计极端高温和适应措施的影响.
主要成果:
- 极端高温事件会使奶产量降低高达10%,影响持续超过10天.
- 在牛生产率高峰期间,热应激效应更为明显,这表明生产力-弹性权衡.
- 现有的适应战略,包括冷却基础设施,减少损失不到50%.
结论:
- 即使是先进的适应策略也可能不足以完全抵消气候变化引起的乳制品生产损害.
- 乳制品行业在预测的气候变化情景下维持生产水平面临重大挑战.
- 需要进一步的研究,以制定更强大的适应措施,为食品系统.
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