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在中国长江经济带的生态系统服务供需的基于场景的模拟

Lanqing Zhang¹, Fei Feng¹, Huihui Huang¹

¹Research Centre of Urban Forestry, Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Forest Ecosystem of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.

Environmental research

|July 5, 2025

概括

本研究分析了中国长江经济带 (YREB) 的生态系统服务供需比率 (ESR),以指导可持续发展. 调查结果揭示了空间不平衡,需要针对经济和生态协同作用制定有针对性的战略.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
环境科学环境科学
区域规划地区规划

背景情况:

均衡生态系统服务供应和需求对于可持续的区域发展至关重要.
识别和解决生态系统服务供需比率 (ESR) 的空间不平衡是一个关键的科学挑战.
在中国长江经济带 (YREB) 中协调经济和生态发展需要了解这些ESR动态.

研究的目的:

模拟未来的土地使用场景,并在2030年YREB中分析ESR.
为了比较ESR从2010年到2030年的变化.
从宏观和微观角度提出ESR失衡的优化途径.

主要方法:

模拟的回火算法与用于土地利用模拟的FLUS模型相结合.
在最佳情景下计算和比较2010年,2020年和2030年的ESR.
应用自组织映射 (SOM) 和贝叶斯信念网络 (BBN) 进行路径建议.

主要成果:

在过去30年中,生态系统服务供应增长了4%-6%,除了碳封存.
江苏和上海显示了对碳捕获和土壤保护 (>90%) 的持续需求状态.
宏观分析显示了经济 (CLASS1) 和生态 (CLASS3) 领域之间的明显的ESR优先级;微观分析强调了碳封存成果和节水优化需求.

结论:

30年来,生态系统服务发生了重大变化,不同地区的供需状况各不相同.
宏观层面的分析表明,不同的发展优先事项影响了ESR.
微层次分析确定了需要优化的特定服务,强调了在YREB中发展协同作用的差异化策略的必要性.

关键词:

贝叶斯模型是贝叶斯模型.经济和生态协同发展经济和生态协同发展.生态系统服务供应/需求的比率.自组织地图绘制自组织地图.模拟的回火算法模拟回火算法

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