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Updated: Sep 16, 2025

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Assessment of Social Transmission of Food Preferences Behaviors
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根据省级饮食和共同的社会经济路径,预测中国未来的粮食需求
Mulin Chen1, Linsheng Yang1,2, Hairong Li3,4
1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Scientific data
|July 5, 2025
概括
这项研究预测了中国在不同地区和场景的未来粮食需求,考虑了不同的饮食和能源需求. 这些发现支持为粮食安全和可持续性量身定制的粮食管理和资源分配.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 食品安全研究 食品安全研究
- 环境可持续性 环境可持续性
背景情况:
- 中国在饮食习惯和人口方面表现出显著的区域差异,影响了粮食需求.
- 了解这些异质性对于预测未来的粮食需求和确保国家粮食安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据五种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 情景,预测中国未来的区域饮食模式和粮食需求.
- 从2020年到2100年,为13个主要食品类别开发一个省级食品需求数据集.
主要方法:
- 纳入省级的饮食偏好和能源需求 (年龄,性别,居住状态).
- 用五种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景进行未来预测.
- 根据中国的饮食习惯和宏观营养素要求验证了预计的饮食.
主要成果:
- 创建了一个数据集,详细说明了省级13个食品类别 (2020-2100) 的原粮需求.
- 预计的饮食与现有的中国饮食模式一致,并满足营养需求.
- 强调了饮食,粮食安全,人类健康和环境可持续性之间的联系.
结论:
- 该数据集为中国提供了详细的空间和特定食品需求信息.
- 为区域粮食管理战略和资源配置优化提供了宝贵的见解.
- 支持基于证据的政策制定,为可持续的粮食系统提供支持.
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