对抗艾滋病毒,结核病和疟疾的最佳投资:一项全球建模研究
Timothy B Hallett1, Nicolas A Menzies2, Stephen Resch2
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|July 6, 2025
概括
持续投资对抗艾滋病毒,结核病和疟疾可以挽救数百万人的生命,避免数亿人的感染. 这种方法提供了显著的投资回报,强调了全球卫生安全持续融资的价值.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生安全
- 流行病学
- 健康经济学
背景情况:
- 可持续发展目标的目标是到2030年结束艾滋病毒,结核病和疟疾的流行.
- 由于还有5年时间,评估持续投资对全球基金即将到来的融资周期 (2027年至29年) 的影响至关重要.
- 本研究分析了全球基金支持国家的资金,流行病学,项目成本和进展潜力.
研究的目的:
- 估计持续投资对抗艾滋病,结核病和疟疾的潜在影响.
- 分析资金环境,流行病学情况和项目成本.
- 预测全球基金资格国家未来的进展.
主要方法:
- 一项建模研究估计全球基金支持的国家对艾滋病毒,结核病和疟疾的财政资源需求.
- 资源的可用性是基于国家支出增长,全球基金贡献和其他发展援助.
- 流行病学和成本模型量化了影响,并计算了投资回报率.
主要成果:
- 估计2027-29年总资源需求为140.6亿美元,其中111.3亿美元可能通过国内,全球基金和外部融资得到满足.
- 最佳的资源使用可以挽救2300万人的生命,避免4亿例感染.
- 预计的结果包括接近可持续发展目标的死亡率目标,减少预期寿命的不平等,显著的医疗储蓄和高回报率 (高达19:1的健康价值,每1美元投资3.50美元的经济效益).
结论:
- 对抗艾滋病毒,结核病和疟疾的持续投资带来了巨大的健康效益和高回报.
- 实现这些好处需要国家支出持续增长和外部融资.
- 在2025年成功补充全球基金对于实现这些收益至关重要.
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