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冬季的平流层极端事件对欧洲风暴损害的影响
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman1,2, Daniela I V Domeisen2,3
1Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
概括
极端的平流层事件显著影响冬季天气,在强烈的极地事件之后,在北欧增加风暴危险. 这项研究量化了早期极端天气预警的这些联系.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 极端的平流层事件,如平流层突然升温和强烈的极地事件,影响冬季的地表天气.
- 这些平流层事件可以改变热带外气旋的轨迹,增加极端风,洪水和大雪的风险.
研究的目的:
- 系统量化平流层极端事件对欧大西洋地区中度风暴的影响.
- 建立平流层强迫和风暴相关危险之间的明确联系.
主要方法:
- 利用了欧洲中期天气预报中心的再分析数据.
- 分析了影响数据集,以评估与风暴相关的危险及其地理模式.
- 强烈的极地事件后的影响与平流层突然变暖相比较.
主要成果:
- 发现北欧的风暴相关危险在强烈的极地事件发生后,与平流层突然升温相比,更频繁地发生.
- 据证明,平流层强迫显著塑造了风暴影响的地理分布.
- 在平流层极端事件和随后的中度风暴活动之间建立了明确的联系.
结论:
- 量化平流层事件和中度风暴之间的联系对于理解和预测天气危险至关重要.
- 这项研究可以为应急准备,公共卫生,能源和水资源管理等领域提供早期警告.
- 这些发现强调了考虑平流层动态对于改善中度天气预报的重要性.
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