全球预期和可预防的胃癌的全球寿命估计在185个国家
Jin Young Park1, Damien Georges2, Catharina J Alberts2,3,4
1Early Detection, Prevention and Infections Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France. parkjy@iarc.who.int.
Nature medicine
|July 7, 2025
概括
杆菌 (H. pylori) 感染是胃癌的关键原因. 这项研究预计年轻人群有1560万例胃癌终身病例,其中76%与H. pylori有关,突显了预防的必要性.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 慢性Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) 感染是胃癌的一个显著的,可改变的风险因素.
- 胃癌预防策略需要更新预测,考虑到人口结构的变化和H. pylori的流行.
研究的目的:
- 预测2008-2017年间出生的人口胃癌的未来终身负担.
- 量化未来由H. pylori感染引起的胃癌病例的比例.
- 为决策者提供关于胃癌预防和H. pylori查策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 利用GLOBOCAN 2022年龄特定发病率和联合国人口预测.
- 在185个国家的出生队伍 (2008-2017年) 中量化预期的胃癌病例.
- 有或没有H. pylori干预策略的估计病例.
主要成果:
- 在研究的队列中,预计有1560万例终身胃癌病例,其中76%归因于H. pylori.
- 胃癌的负担集中在亚洲 (三分之二),其次是美洲和非洲.
- 由于人口变化,发病率较低的地区显著增加,特别是撒哈拉以南非洲 (增加六倍).
结论:
- 预计未来的胃癌负担将会很大,主要是由H. pylori感染引起的.
- 人口变化需要重新评估传统上发病率较低的地区的胃癌风险.
- 增加对胃癌预防的投资,包括以人口为基础的H. pylori查和治疗计划,对年轻群体至关重要.
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