解决在肯尼亚计算常规婴儿免疫覆盖率时估计目标人口的挑战
Christine Karanja-Chege1, Ambrose Agweyu2,3, Fred Were4
1Department of Paediatrics and Child health, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya.
PLOS global public health
|July 8, 2025
概括
使用传统的人口普查方法估计免疫覆盖率的目标人口是不准确的. 其他方法,如使用DTP1剂量,显示出更可靠的结果,表明多样化的数据三角化,以更好地规划疫苗接种计划.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 准确的目标人口估计对于计算免疫覆盖率至关重要.
- 传统的人口普查推断方法往往会给免疫计划带来不准确的人口估计.
- 人口数据的不一致性可能会对公共卫生干预和资源分配产生重大影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估传统人口普查对免疫目标群体的推断结果的准确性.
- 为了将人口普查数据与替代方法进行比较:队列组件人口预测方法 (CCPPM),扩展免疫计划 (EPI) 计数器 (BCG,DTP1剂量) 和第一次产前护理访问 (ANC1).
- 确定更可靠的方法来估计疫苗接种计划的目标人群.
主要方法:
- 收集了肯尼亚 (1999-2023) 的目标人口估计,使用四种方法:人口普查推断,CCPPM,EPI (BCG/DTP1) 和ANC1 (2020-2023).
- 使用平均绝对误差 (MAE),平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 和皮尔森相关系数 (r) 评估2003-2018年的准确性,不包括异常值.
- 进行了包括ANC1数据在内的2020-2023年的子分析.
主要成果:
- CCPPM方法产生了最大的人口估计,而基于人口普查的方法显示了不连续性.
- 与CCPPM (MAE=212917.19,MAPE=18.18) 相比,DTP1剂量和基于人口普查的方法显示出最小的误差 (MAE=44317.16,MAPE=3.77).
- ANC1和DTP1剂量显示最强的线性相关性 (r=1.00);人口普查数据在2020-2023年有显著差异.
结论:
- 目前的目标人口估计方法,特别是基于人口普查的方法,表现出严重的不准确性,影响免疫覆盖率评估.
- 疫苗接种计划应该三角化来自不同来源的数据,以实用地接近目标人口,特别是没有强大的民事登记系统.
- 需要进一步的研究来解决数据缺口,并完善疫苗接种计划的人口估计技术.
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