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在加拿大的深度去碳化场景下,利用加拿大GCAM-加拿大在地方规模探索用水的途径
Osama Younis1, Evan G R Davies1, Diego V Chiappori2
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, 9211 - 116 Street NW, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Journal of environmental management
|July 8, 2025
概括
到2050年,加拿大淡水提取量可能会下降9%-26%,但消费量将增加. 气候政策对区域性水用产生影响,突出了定制水资源管理战略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 加拿大拥有丰富的淡水资源,人均提取量很高.
- 由于脱碳努力而导致的能源和土地系统转型对水资源的影响尚未得到充分研究.
- 了解这些影响对于可持续的水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2050年在六个部门和次国家区域的加拿大用水量.
- 分析社会经济发展,技术进步和气候减缓情景 (包括直接捕获空气) 对用水的影响.
- 量化出口中包含的虚拟水,并评估全球脱碳对当地水资源的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了综合评估模型,GCAM-加拿大.
- 城市,制造业,灌,畜牧业,初级能源采矿和热能发电部门的预计用水量.
- 检查了六种社会经济和气候减缓情景的组合,跨省和河流流域.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,全国淡水提取量将在所有情景中减少9%-26%.
- 预计在所有尺度上,水消耗量都将增加.
- 净零气候政策带来了与用水的区域性权衡和协同作用,需要制定本地化的政策.
- 虚拟水出口 (绿色,蓝色和电力) 预计将增加,根据脱碳水平和美国能源需求的变化.
结论:
- 气候缓解政策对加拿大水资源使用产生了显著的,区域不同的影响.
- 增加的虚拟水出口表明,全球对加拿大水资源的依赖日益增长.
- 在更广泛的气候框架内,定制的水资源管理解决方案对于可持续的未来至关重要.
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