模拟亚洲大陆IIb类mopox的国际传播
Toshiaki R Asakura1, Sung-Mok Jung2, Hiroaki Murayama3
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, England.
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
|July 9, 2025
概括
数学建模确定了男性与男性发生性关系的男性中mopox传播的高风险国家,突出了全球制努力的必要性,特别是在低收入国家.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 马普克斯 (麻疹) 疫情已经显示出显著的国际传播.
- 了解传播动态,特别是与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) 之间的传播动态,对于有效控制至关重要.
- 国际旅行和性接触模式是疾病传播的关键驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 开发和使用数学模型来模拟mopox.com的国际传播.
- 确定Mopox引入和进一步传播的高风险国家和地区.
- 为公共卫生策略提供信息,以控制mopox.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个数学模型,将MSM性活动水平和国际旅行的变化纳入其中.
- 该模型使用来自日本的疾病发病率数据进行校准.
- 模拟预计mopox分布在亚洲42个国家和地区,日本是假设的来源.
主要成果:
- 模拟发现了许多国家和地区,特别是在西太平洋和东南亚地区,有高风险的mopox引入.
- 该模型预测进口风险的时间转移,最初从西太平洋到东南亚,然后到东地中海和欧洲地区.
- 这些模拟模式显示了与2023年至2024年间观察到的mopox传播的总体对齐.
结论:
- 开发的多国模型有效地预测了亚洲大陆的潜在mopox爆发轨迹.
- 调查结果强调了全球POBox制倡议的必要性.
- 针对低收入和中等收入国家提供有针对性的支持对于减轻亚洲和全球范围内mopox传播至关重要.
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