预测临灭绝的药用植物Saussurea medusa的息地适宜性:从整体物种分布模型的见解
Xiang Guo1, Wei Bai2, Yihua Wang3
1Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences, Third Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Tongji Shanxi Hospital, Taiyuan, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|July 9, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁到像Saussurea medusa这样的高山植物. 预计适合息地将减少80%以上,危及生存并需要保护努力.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 阿尔卑斯山的生态系统很容易受到全球气候变化的影响,这给特有植物物种带来了息地丧失的风险.
- 在中国西南地区,一种具有医疗价值的高山植物Saussurea medusa因气候变暖而面临着不确定的未来.
- 目前对气候变化对Saussurea medusa息地适宜性的影响的理解有限.
研究的目的:
- 在各种未来气候变化场景下评估Saussurea medusa的时空息地分布.
- 量化Saussurea medusa.适合息地面积和分布变化的预测变化.
- 确定影响Saussurea medusa潜在分布的关键环境因素.
主要方法:
- 综合物种分布模型被用来模拟息地模式.
- 未来气候场景 (ssp126,ssp585) 用于2040年代,2060年代和2070年代的预测.
- 分析包括当前和未来的息地面积,分布中心和有影响力的环境变量.
主要成果:
- 目前适宜的息地集中在青海-西高原,面积为14.06×10^4平方公里.
- 未来的预测表明,适合息地将大幅缩减80.65%,分布中心将向西南和更高的海拔地区移动.
- 高度,最热季度的降水量 (BIO18),年降水量 (BIO12) 和温度季节性 (BIO4) 被确定为关键因素.
结论:
- 在未来的气候变化下,Saussurea medusa面临着息地丧失和生存挑战的高风险.
- 保护战略必须考虑预计的息地转移和收缩.
- 该研究为可持续管理和保护Saussurea medusa提供了必要的数据.
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