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评估早期检测能力通过空间安排在环境监测的脊髓灰质炎病毒:一个基于模拟的研究
Toshiaki R Asakura1,2,3, Kathleen M O'Reilly1,2
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
PloS one
|July 9, 2025
概括
战略环境监测 (ES) 的实施有助于提前检测小儿麻症病毒. 分散的风险降低了ES的有效性,而大面积的广泛,低频采样改善了检测.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病监测 传染病监测 传染病
背景情况:
- 早期发现流通的脊髓灰质炎病毒对于及时进行公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 环境监测 (ES) 显示了增强病原体检测的前景.
- 对于ES部位的空间布局对早期检测有效性的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 通过改变ES站点的数量和位置来评估环境监测 (ES) 的早期检测能力.
- 利用基于模拟的方法,使用南非的地理和人口数据作为案例研究.
- 评估ES选址和采样频率的不同策略.
主要方法:
- 开发了5岁以下未接种疫苗的儿童的随机元人口模型.
- 模拟了野生脊髓灰质炎病毒血清型1的单次引入.
- 构建了六个场景,将三种进口风险分布与两个ES站点布局策略 (基于人口规模和基于边境过境) 结合起来.
主要成果:
- 当进口风险在地理上受到限制时,战略位置的ES站点可以实现高的早期检测率.
- 分散的进口风险显著降低了ES的有效性.
- 与有限区域的高频采样相比,在采样频率低的大区域实施ES显示出优越的早期检测能力.
结论:
- 环境监测的空间布局和规模显著影响早期发现脊髓灰质炎病毒.
- 对于各种进口场景,广泛的低频采样策略似乎更有效.
- 调查结果为优化环境监测计划的规模和地点选择提供了宝贵的见解.
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