估计疫情应对免疫计划在低收入和中等收入国家210次疫情中的历史影响
Dominic Delport1,2, Alina M Muellenmeister3, Gabrielle MacKechnie3,4
1Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia dominic.delport@burnet.edu.au.
BMJ global health
|July 9, 2025
概括
疫情应对免疫计划在低收入和中等收入国家显著减少了病例,死亡和经济成本. 迅速启动的免疫工作产生了更大的影响,突出了它们在疾病制中的关键作用.
科学领域:
- 流行病学和公共卫生.
- 疫苗学和免疫学 疫苗学和免疫学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 疫苗可预防的疾病爆发在低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs) 很常见,需要有效的疫情应对免疫 (ORI) 计划.
- 评估过去的ORI计划的影响对于为未来的公共卫生投资和资源配置战略提供信息至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化预防的病例,死亡,残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 和可归因于LMIC中针对特定疫苗可预防疾病的ORI计划的经济成本.
- 为决策者提供基于证据的见解,了解ORI干预措施的价值和有效性.
主要方法:
- 在2000-2023年间,利用公开报告和文献数据,分析了49个低收入国家和地区的210起疫情 (麻疹,埃博拉病毒,黄热病,霍乱,脑膜炎炎).
- 对每个疾病的基于病原体的模型进行校准,以模拟"现状"和"无ORI"情景下的疫情动态,控制关键的流行病学和环境因素.
- 将模拟结果与观察数据进行比较,以估计实施的ORI计划的影响.
主要成果:
- 据估计,ORI计划在研究的疫情中避免了581万例病例,327,000例死亡,1460万个DALY,以及317亿美元的经济成本.
- 黄热病爆发在避免的DALY和经济成本方面产生了最大的影响,其次是麻疹.
- 较快启动ORI计划通常与疾病负担和经济影响的更大减少有关.
结论:
- 疫情应对免疫计划是减轻LMIC中疫苗可预防疾病爆发的重大健康和经济后果的必不可少的工具.
- 这些发现强调了ORI及时有效实施对全球卫生安全和经济稳定至关重要.
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