气候变化对重要的开放海洋和地中海沿海生态系统的风险
Abed El Rahman Hassoun1,2, Meryem Mojtahid3, Mohammad Merheb4
1GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany. ahassoun@geomar.de.
Scientific reports
|July 10, 2025
概括
地中海海洋和沿海生态系统面临着气候变化的高风险. 沿海地区最脆弱,即使在0.8°C升温的情况下,风险也会变得严重,影响生物多样性和生态系统功能.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 地中海的生态系统
背景情况:
- 地中海海洋和沿海生态系统拥有独特的生物多样性.
- 这些生态系统面临着气候变化和其他人为驱动因素 (如过度捕捞和污染) 的重大威胁.
- 气候变化是地中海环境变化的主要驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对地中海海洋和沿海生态系统的风险.
- 评估这些风险评估的信心水平.
- 根据气候情景,预测这些生态系统的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 的基于场景的方法.
- 对预测地中海生态系统变化的文献进行了全面的审查.
- 专注于气候变化的主要驱动因素:海平面上升,海洋变暖和酸化.
主要成果:
- 所有地中海生态系统在所有情景中都面临着高气候变化风险.
- 沿海生态系统受到的影响比公开海洋生态系统更严重.
- 沿海生态系统的风险水平在0.8°C升温以上变得非常高 (相对于1976-2005年).
- 一些生态系统,如珊瑚和岩石海岸,由于进化历史和各种条件,显示出更高的弹性.
- 高排放场景和酸化可以大大降低弹性,息地范围和生态系统功能.
- 地中海地区的气候变化 (例如海温,pH值) 比全球平均值高,导致海洋生态系统,特别是沿海生态系统的风险增加.
结论:
- 地中海海洋生态系统,特别是沿海生态系统,面临气候变化带来的高风险.
- 预计的变暖和酸化对生物多样性和生态系统服务构成严重威胁.
- 迫切需要缓解和适应战略来保护这些脆弱的生态系统.
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