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低测试数量对慢性衰竭疾病明显患病率的影响

Jameson J Mori¹, Nelda A Rivera¹, William M Brown¹

¹Illinois Natural History Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA.

|July 11, 2025

概括

慢性衰竭疾病 (CWD) 的明显患病率 (AP) 可以在有限的测试下误导性地高. 增加CWD测试,特别是当很少进行时,对于精确的鹿类疾病监测至关重要.

科学领域:

兽医科学兽医科学兽医科学
野生动物生态生态学
流行病学流行病学

背景情况:

慢性衰竭疾病 (CWD) 是一种致命的神经退行性疾病,影响宫动物.
有效的CWD管理在很大程度上依赖于准确的诊断测试和流行率估计.
表面患病率 (AP) 是一个常见的指标,但可能会误导,特别是在有限的测试中.

研究的目的:

调查CWD测试量,CWD病例和明显患病率之间的关系.
确定有限的测试如何影响CWD监测中AP估计的准确性.
为解释和改进CWD监测数据提供建议.

主要方法:

美国伊利诺伊州和威斯康星州CWD监测数据的分析.
利用贝叶斯的多层次零膨胀β回归模型AP.
模拟AP作为CWD测试和CWD病例的函数,包括非线性转换.

主要成果:

高AP值 (≥50%) 仅在测试少于23只鹿时才观察到.
在AP和CWD测试数量之间发现了统计学上显著的负相关性.
这种负面关系被一个积极的非线性测试共变量所修改,表明随着测试的增加,影响正在减少.

结论:

估计明显流行率为50%或更高的估计应谨慎解释,特别是基于有限的测试时.
增加CWD测试的数量对于可靠的疾病监测至关重要,特别是当初始监测结果很少时.
该研究强调了在评估CWD流行数据时考虑测试量的重要性.

关键词:

在CWD中使用CWD.显而易见的流行率.子动物子动物慢性消耗性疾病慢性消耗性疾病诊断测试诊断测试测试诊断测试疾病监测疾病监测野生动物管理野生动物管理

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