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极端天气事件的归因预测了全球气候政策的支持

Viktoria Cologna^1,2,3, Simona Meiler^1,4, Chahan M Kropf^1,4

¹Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

Nature climate change

|July 11, 2025

概括

大多数人支持气候政策,并将极端天气与气候变化联系起来. 相信气候变化导致极端天气会增加对气候政策的支持,即使直接暴露不会.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
环境政策环境政策
社会科学社会科学社会科学

背景情况:

由于气候变化,极端天气事件的频率和强度正在增加.
了解极端天气暴露,将其归因于气候变化和支持气候政策之间的联系至关重要,特别是在全球南方.
现有的研究尚未充分探索这些关系.

研究的目的:

调查暴露于极端天气事件,主观将这些事件归因于气候变化和支持气候政策之间的关系.
开发一种衡量受极端天气事件影响的人口的方法.
为了确定暴露和归因是否预测68个国家的气候政策支持.

主要方法:

结合了来自68个国家的71,922名个人的大规模自然和社会科学数据.
开发了一种新的测量方法来量化人口对极端天气事件的暴露.
采用统计分析来评估暴露和主观归因对气候政策支持的预测能力.

主要成果:

大多数受访者支持气候政策,并将极端天气事件归因于气候变化.
对极端天气对气候变化的主观归因与支持五个主要气候政策的积极关联.
接触大多数类型的极端天气事件并不能显著预测气候政策的支持.

结论:

对极端天气事件的主观归因于气候变化似乎是气候政策支持的关键驱动力.
虽然直接暴露于极端天气可能不会始终转化为政策支持,但对其与气候变化联系的看法确实如此.
研究结果表明,促进公众对气候变化与极端天气联系的理解和信念,可以增强对气候行动的支持.

关键词:

归因的归因归因的归因气候变化的影响气候变化的影响气候变化政策气候变化政策心理学心理学心理学

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