早期发展的关键特征如何塑造深度对流系统.
Sophie Abramian1, Caroline Muller2, Camille Risi1
1Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Sorbonne Université, PSL Research University, Paris, France.
概括
深交流系统 (DCS) 是热带雨的主要来源. 系统内在的特性,不仅仅是环境,显著影响其最终尺寸,特别是在较大的系统.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 深度对流系统 (DCS) 对热带降雨和辐射预算至关重要.
- 了解DCS增长因素和未来在气候变暖中的行为是一个根本的挑战.
- 以前的研究集中在环境控制或理想化的内部动力学上,缺乏对它们相对作用的明确理解.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估内部与外部因素对DCS成熟云屏蔽大小的相对影响.
- 确定DCS在整个发展过程中成熟大小的关键预测因素.
- 调查控制DCS大小时内在性质与环境条件的优势.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自DYAMOND项目的高分辨率全球SAM模拟.
- 采用 TOOCAN 拉格兰追踪用于 DCS 识别和分析.
- 应用机器学习工具来分析系统增长和影响因素.
主要成果:
- 系统在前2小时的增长率预测了最终的尺寸 (r=0.65).
- 超过2小时后,生长速度是DCS大小的最强预测因素.
- 早期的DCS发展受到冰水路径异质性,迁移,邻近系统和深切的影响.
结论:
- 系统内在的特性对成熟的DCS大小的影响比环境条件更大.
- 最初的环境并没有严格限制DCSs的最终尺寸.
- 在确定较大的DCS的规模时,内部动态变得占主导地位.
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