从巴基斯坦两个省份对TCV的初始影响和预测未来收益进行建模
Alicia N M Kraay1, Mohammad T Yousafzai2, Sonia Qureshi2
1Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia
|July 11, 2025
概括
伤寒联合疫苗 (TCV) 减少了巴基斯坦的伤寒发病率,但效果因各省而异. 虽然旁遮普州的发病率持续较低,但辛德省的免疫力下降速度更快,因此需要进一步评估TCV策略.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
背景情况:
- 尽管确实有效,但伤寒联合疫苗 (TCV) 的实际有效性数据有限.
- 需要评估人口层面的影响,并预测巴基斯坦TCV的未来好处.
研究的目的:
- 评估TCV对巴基斯坦两个省份伤寒发病率的初始影响.
- 使用建模预测TCV的长期有效性和免疫力下降.
主要方法:
- 利用来自SEAP和ITRIPP项目 (2018-2023) 的血培验证的伤寒数据.
- 使用回归模型进行初始影响评估和基于代理的模型来预测未来的好处.
- 在辛德和旁遮普省之间比较伤寒发病率和病例人口统计.
主要成果:
- 在两年内,TCV显著降低了伤寒发病率:在辛德省48.9%,在旁遮普省66.2%.
- 发病率的减少逐年下降;在辛德省观察到较快的衰退,预计在2024年恢复到疫苗前的水平.
- 旁遮普州显示持续的低发病率,可能充足于追赶和常规免疫接种,但需要进一步的随访.
结论:
- 在巴基斯坦,TCV在减少伤寒发病率方面表现出有效性,具有特定地点的变化.
- 9个月的常规免疫接种加上追赶可以控制中度传播设置.
- 高发病率或快速衰退的环境可能需要替代策略来维持TCV的好处.
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