控制风险因素对中国未来肝癌死亡的潜在影响
Mengdi Cao1, Yi Teng1, Qianru Li1
1Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
概括
控制病毒性肝炎,吸烟和肥胖等主要风险因素,可以在2050年之前预防超过80%的中国肝癌死亡. 针对性干预和查对于降低肝癌死亡率至关重要.
科学领域:
- 肝病学和瘤学研究.
- 公共卫生和流行病学.
- 预防医学和卫生政策.
背景情况:
- 肝癌在中国仍然是一个重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 导致肝癌的主要危险因素包括病毒性肝炎 (HBV,HCV),吸烟,饮酒,高BMI和糖尿病.
- 量化干预措施的影响对于有效的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化控制主要风险因素对2021年至2050年中国肝癌死亡的潜在影响.
- 评估各种干预场景,包括消除,雄心勃勃的减少和可管理的风险因素目标.
- 通过肝癌查来评估二次预防的作用.
主要方法:
- 基于比较风险评估的宏观级模拟模型的开发.
- 估计人口可归因部分和可避免的肝癌死亡人数.
- 预测每个风险因素的三个干预场景,并评估80%覆盖率的查影响.
主要成果:
- 在没有干预的情况下,预计在2021-2050年期间有944万男性和429万女性肝癌死亡.
- 消除HBV和HCV可以分别预防65.62%和28.47%的死亡.
- 综合性风险因素控制可以在2050年之前预防高达88.39% (男性) 和77.80% (女性) 的肝癌死亡.
结论:
- 综合控制主要风险因素,为预防中国肝癌死亡提供了巨大的潜力.
- 通过查进行的二次预防提供了适度的额外好处.
- 基于证据的,有针对性的干预措施和政策行动对于减轻肝癌负担至关重要.
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