使用马过程预测地铁泛流机滑动条的剩余使用寿命及其对维护计划的影响
1School of Intelligent Manufacturing and Transportation, Chongqing Vocational Institute of Engineering, Chongqing, China.
PloS one
|July 11, 2025
概括
使用数据驱动的马过程模型预测地铁泛流机部件的剩余使用寿命 (RUL) 可以改善维护计划. 这种方法提高了安全性,并降低了运输系统的运营成本.
科学领域:
- 工程 工程师 工程师 工程师
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 可靠性工程可靠性工程
背景情况:
- 地铁列车上的泛录机滑动条的逐渐磨损需要及时更换,以确保运行安全.
- 当前的维护实践可能无法最佳地考虑组件退化,从而导致潜在的低效率或故障.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个可适应的,数据驱动的框架,用于预测地铁泛流机滑动条的剩余使用寿命 (RUL).
- 将RUL预测集成到实际的维护计划策略中,以提高使用寿命和降低成本.
主要方法:
- 利用重庆地铁6号线的运营数据进行分析.
- 采用了马过程模型来描述元件磨损行为.
- 应用贝叶斯推理和马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC) 采样,用于参数估计和后部分布分析.
主要成果:
- 将先前的知识纳入马过程模型显著提高了预测准确性.
- 该模型在组件生命周期的不同阶段展示了可靠的性能.
- 对三种参数估计方法进行了比较分析.
结论:
- 拟议的数据驱动框架为地铁系统的预测性维护提供了一个务实的工具.
- 开发的维护计划策略,整合了RUL预测,有效地延长了部件的使用寿命并降低了成本.
- 该方法可适应需要RUL预测的类似工程应用.
相关概念视频
Multimachine Stability
233
Multimachine stability analysis is crucial for understanding the dynamics and stability of power systems with multiple synchronous machines. The objective is to solve the swing equations for a network of M machines connected to an N-bus power system.
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
233
Distribution Reliability and Automation
166
Distribution reliability in electrical power systems is critical for ensuring an uninterrupted power supply to consumers at minimal cost. According to IEEE Standard Terms, reliability is the probability that a device will function without failure over a specified time period or amount of usage. For electric power distribution, this translates to maintaining continuous power supply and addressing customer concerns over power outages. Several indices, as defined by IEEE Standard 1366-2012, are...
166
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
622
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
622
Fatigue
243
Fatigue occurs when materials rupture under repeated or fluctuating loads, even at stress levels far below their static breaking strength. It typically results in brittle failure, even for ductile materials. It is a critical consideration in designing machines and structural components subjected to repetitive or varying loads. The nature of these loadings can range from fluctuating loads like unbalanced pump impellers causing vibrations to repeatedly bending a thin steel rod wire back and forth...
243


