是否是一个极端事件:这就是问题
Christophe Letellier1, Léandre Kamdjeu Kengne2,3, Manyu Zhao2
1Rouen Normandie University-CORIA, Campus Universitaire du Madrillet, F-76800 Saint-Etienne du Rouvray, France.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|July 11, 2025
概括
本研究提出了基于拓动态和振荡幅度和回归时间的值的极端事件的新定义. 这种方法有助于区分并潜在地预测复杂系统中的极端事件.
科学领域:
- 复杂系统动力学 复杂系统动力学
- 非线性动力学是一种非线性动力学.
- 混沌理论 混沌理论
背景情况:
- 极端事件的定义在科学文献中缺乏共识.
- 将极端事件与正常动态区分开来,对于预测和理解至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为极端事件提出一种新的,基于拓学的定义.
- 建立识别和潜在预测极端事件的标准.
主要方法:
- 标称动态的拓性表征.
- 使用两个值:振荡幅度和与切面的交叉点之间的返回时间.
- 研究Rayleigh-Bénard对流的3D系统和9D模型.
主要成果:
- 介绍了一种拓方法来定义极端事件.
- 小幅度振荡和大幅度振荡之间的临界点在3D冲动系统中被确定.
- 研究了预测大振幅振荡的潜力.
结论:
- 拟议的拓定义为识别极端事件提供了一个严格的框架.
- 该方法在区分和预测动态系统中的关键过渡方面表现有前途.
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