基于陆地气候变化缓解场景下的行星边界与粮食需求转型:一个建模研究
Felicitas D Beier1, Jan Philipp Dietrich2, Jens Heinke2
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institut für Agrar-und Gartenbauwissenschaften, Berlin, Germany.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|July 11, 2025
概括
雄心勃勃的气候缓解和饮食转变可以将全球变暖限制在1.5°C,减少行星边界的超越. 然而,实现一个安全的操作空间需要综合战略,考虑土地系统和粮食需求.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 星球的边界 星球的边界
背景情况:
- 全球变暖需要各个部门都采取雄心勃勃的气候变化缓解措施.
- 基于土地的战略,包括温室气体 (GHG) 减少和碳吸收,是具有成本效益的缓解途径的关键.
- 评估可持续性需要评估跨行星边界的陆地行动的协同效应和权衡.
研究的目的:
- 评估跨越五个星球边界的陆地气候缓解措施的协同效应和权衡.
- 评估粮食系统转型对行星边界结果的影响,与行星健康饮食建议保持一致.
- 检查个人和联合缓解策略对减少行星边界突破的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用动态土地系统建模框架MAgPIE进行评估.
- 基于陆地的温室气体减排,碳吸收,生物能源供应和食品系统转型的模拟后果.
- 分析了对五个行星边界领域的影响:气候变化,,土地系统变化,淡水使用和生物圈完整性.
主要成果:
- 粮食系统转型与土地和能源系统缓解相结合,可以在2100年之前将变暖限制在1.5°C.
- 这些措施减少了气候变化,土地系统变化,生物圈完整性和极限的违法行为.
- 减少食物浪费和饮食转变大大减轻了土地系统的压力,并减少了跨越所有评估边界的违法行为.
结论:
- 考虑多个行星边界和战略相互作用对于可持续的陆地系统气候缓解至关重要.
- 符合"巴黎协定"的减缓途径到2100年仍然会导致行星边界的超越.
- 结合土地系统缓解措施,将结果大大转向为人类提供更安全的操作空间.
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