公共汽车站附近的行人撞车原因分析:来自随机参数的洞察力 负 双项-林德利模型
Mohammad Anis1, Srinivas R Geedipally2, Dominique Lord1
1Zachry Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|July 12, 2025
概括
通过增加人行道,照明和人行道,提高了巴士站附近的行人安全. 较高的交通和登机活动增加了碰撞风险,而远侧放置和信号交叉路口减少了它们.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 城市公共汽车站附近的行人安全问题没有得到充分的研究,往往被忽视为交叉路口的好处.
- 现有的研究还不足以解决具体的公共汽车站设计与交通如何相互作用,影响行人安全的问题.
- 在了解影响在交通站附近行人撞车风险的特定场所因素方面存在关键差距.
研究的目的:
- 制定一个全面的框架来评估行人安全,特别是在城市公共汽车站的位置.
- 识别影响行人撞车频率的关键交通,道路和公共汽车站设计特征.
- 为积极的安全管理和风险优先级提供数据驱动的洞察力.
主要方法:
- 利用随机参数负二项-林德利 (RPNB-L) 模型分析德克萨斯州沃思堡596个巴士站 (2018-2022) 的行人撞车数据.
- 纳入基于Full Bayes的安全改进潜力 (PSI) 度量,用于识别危险位置和走廊.
- 考虑了未观察到的异质性和事故风险因素的特定地点变异性.
主要成果:
- 增加的平均年度每日交通量 (AADT),高登机率,以及缺乏人行道,中位点或照明,与更高的行人撞车频率有显著的相关性.
- 远端的公共汽车站,有信号的十字路口,人行道和混合用途的开发项目都与减少撞车风险有关.
- 靠近学校的道路和35英里/小时或更低的速度限制会增加行人碰撞的风险.
结论:
- 公交车站的位置,周围的开发项目和安全基础设施的存在是行人安全的关键决定因素.
- RPNB-L模型和PSI指标提供了有效的工具来识别高风险的巴士站,并优先考虑安全干预措施.
- 可以制定可行的,基于证据的策略,以提高城市交通站附近的行人安全.
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