在深层地质库中预测放射性核素的行为,使用图形卷积长短时间内存.
Dae Seong Jeong1, Jinuk Lee2, JongCheol Pyo3
1Future and Fusion Lab of Architectural, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea.
Journal of hazardous materials
|July 12, 2025
概括
图形卷积长短期记忆 (GCLSTM) 模型有效地预测了深层地质仓库中的放射性核体运输. 与传统方法相比,这种代用模型显著降低了计算成本,同时保持了高精度.
科学领域:
- 地质工程是地质工程.
- 计算建模计算建模
- 核废物管理 核废物管理
背景情况:
- 深层地质仓库 (DGRs) 需要准确的放射性核素运输预测,以确保安全的废核燃料处置.
- 物理实验对于长期模拟是不切实际的,因此计算模型是必不可少的.
- 平行流和反应运输模型 (PFLOTRAN) 是一个标准的,但计算密集的工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证图形卷积长短期记忆 (GCLSTM) 模型作为PFLOTRAN的计算效率高的替代品.
- 评估GCLSTM用于模拟DGR中长期放射性核素运输的准确性和可靠性.
- 为了减少放射性核素运输模拟的计算负担.
主要方法:
- 通过使用来自5000年PFLOTRAN模拟的时间序列数据来训练GCLSTM.
- 用确定系数和纳什-萨克利夫效率来评估模型性能.
- 进行了不确定性量化,灵敏度分析和基于场景的模拟.
主要成果:
- GCLSTM实现了确定系数>0.99和纳什-萨克利夫效率>0.97.
- 超过95%的GCLSTM预测都属于PFLOTRAN的置信区间.
- 通过性和节点间距离被确定为预测差异的关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 在放射性核素运输模拟中,GCLSTM作为PFLOTRAN的高效和准确的替代品.
- 该GCLSTM模型将计算时间缩短约576倍.
- 这种方法提供了一个实际的解决方案,用于提高DGR安全评估中的建模效率.
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