腹腔透析患者上部胃肠道出血的预测模型的开发和验证:一项回顾性多中心队列研究
Sijia Shang1,2, Xing Zhang1,2, Xiaojiang Zhan3
1Department of Hematology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
BMC nephrology
|July 12, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种预测模型,用于腹腔透析 (PD) 患者上部胃肠道出血 (UGIB). 关键预测因素包括,质子抑制剂 (PPI),先前的UGIB病史,血红蛋白和尿酸水平.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 上部胃肠道出血 (UGIB) 在腹腔透析 (PD) 患者中比一般人群更为普遍.
- 目前对PD患者UGIB风险因素的研究有限,预测模型很少.
研究的目的:
- 建立和验证在接受腹腔透析的患者中UGIB的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 一项回顾性研究分析了2007年2月至2021年11月的2107名PD患者.
- 最小绝对收缩和选择运营商 (LASSO) 回归确定了关键的风险因素.
- 开发并使用ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析验证了一个预后名图.
主要成果:
- 确定了PD患者中UGIB的五个显著预测因素:的使用,质子抑制剂 (PPI) 的使用,UGIB史,血红蛋白水平和尿酸水平.
- 诺米图表表现出强大的预测性能,训练组的C指数为0.859,验证组的C指数为0.874.
结论:
- 和PPI,先前的UGIB病史,血红蛋白和尿酸是PD患者UGIB的关键预测因素.
- 开发的名图表作为一个有价值的临床工具,用于预测PD患者的UGIB风险.
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