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老龄化,社会经济差异和发病率的演变对未来医疗支出的影响 - - 一个动态的微观模拟
Thomas Horvath1, Thomas Leoni2, Peter Reschenhofer1
1Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Arsenal Objekt 20, Vienna, 1030, Austria.
人口老龄化增加了医疗保健成本,原因是死亡率下降和年龄结构的变化. 延长健康寿命和减少健康差距的政策可以减轻这种经济负担.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化是全球医疗保健支出增加的重要驱动因素.
- 调整卫生系统需要对影响医疗保健成本的因素有定量理解.
- 需要详细的分析来为有效的政策干预提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 用动态微模拟来预测奥地利未来的医疗保健支出.
- 解开长寿,年龄结构,健康寿命和社会经济差异对成本的具体影响.
- 评估对劳动力的经济影响.
主要方法:
- 动态微模拟模型 (microDEMS) 与奥地利健康访谈调查数据集成.
- 根据性别,年龄和教育水平构建平均成本概况,与卫生账户系统保持一致.
- 预测到2060年的医疗保健支出情景,考虑人口统计学和健康相关因素.
主要成果:
- 人口老龄化增加了劳动人口的财务负担,即使病率压缩.
- 死亡率下降占预计成本增加的三分之二,而年龄结构变化贡献了三分之一.
- 如果延长健康寿命和减少差异伴随着较低的死亡率,人均成本可能会下降5%,而在病率扩张的情景中,死亡率上升26%.
结论:
- 医疗保健支出的上升是老龄化社会面临的关键挑战.
- 促进延长健康寿命的政策对于减轻经济影响至关重要.
- 减少社会经济健康差距提供了一个可行的策略来管理医疗保健成本.
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