为年轻成年人开发和验证事件高血压风险预测模型
Jaejin An1,2, Heidi Fischer1, Liang Ni1
1Department of Research & Evaluation Kaiser Permanente Southern California Pasadena CA USA.
Journal of the American Heart Association
|July 14, 2025
概括
一个新的高血压风险预测模型发现,比目前的指导方针更多的年轻人需要早期干预. 这种工具可以改善18至39岁成年人血压查建议.
科学领域:
- 心血管疾病的研究研究.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 医学中的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 在年轻人中确定高血压风险对于及时干预至关重要.
- 目前的血压查指南可能无法最佳地识别高风险个体.
- 早期发现高血压风险可以为有针对性的查策略提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证年轻成年人 (18-39岁) 发生高血压的预测模型.
- 将新型预测模型的性能与现有的美国预防服务工作组 (USPSTF) 建议进行比较.
- 评估一种新模型在识别高风险年轻成年人早期干预方面的效率.
主要方法:
- 使用考克斯弹性网和随机生存森林开发了特定性别的高血压预测模型.
- 利用了各种各样的当代队列,包括凯泽常驻南加州和三个外部队列研究 (CARDIA,FHS,HCHS/SOL).
- 包括诸如年龄,血压,BMI,吸烟,健康的社会决定因素,并发病,脂质和与怀孕有关的高血压疾病等预测因素.
主要成果:
- 开发的模型在外部验证队伍中显示出良好的区分和校准.
- 新模型显示了相似的灵敏度,但与USPSTF对识别高风险个体的建议相比,其特异性得到了改善.
- 该模型估计有2850万美国年轻人面临高风险,而USPSTF估计有4530万,这表明识别更有效.
结论:
- 新型高血压风险预测模型提供了一种更有效的方法来识别高风险的年轻人.
- 这种工具可能有助于提升高血压预防早期干预策略.
- 这些发现支持对年轻成年人血压查建议的改进.
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