评估CHIRPS和CPC降水数据的性能,用于使用多重线性回归和长短期记忆神经网络模型进行流量预测
Khairul Hasan1,2, Md Sahidul Islam3, Khayrun Nahar Mitu1,2
1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA.
MethodsX
|July 14, 2025
概括
基于卫星的CHIRPS降雨数据是流量预测的可行替代方案,在与LSTM-NN模型一起使用时,其性能优于传统的CPC数据. 这种机器学习方法为水资源管理提供了具有成本效益和准确的预测.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 精确的流量预测对于水资源管理至关重要,但传统上依赖于昂贵的,粗略分辨率的地面气象站.
- 机器学习以最小的输入数据提供了成本效益高的流量预测,解决了传统方法的局限性.
研究的目的:
- 评估基于测量器 (CPC) 和基于卫星 (CHIRPS) 的降雨数据在狼河流域的流量预测中的有效性.
- 为了比较多重线性回归 (MLR) 和长短期记忆神经网络 (LSTM-NN) 模型的性能,用于流量预测.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自CHIRPS和CPC (1991-2021) 的每日降水数据,用于狼河流域.
- 开发并比较了MLR和LSTM-NN模型,使用来自USGS标尺07031650.0.的每日流量数据进行比较.
- 使用根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和平均绝对误差 (MAE) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 使用CHIRPS数据的LSTM-NN模型与CPC数据相比,实现了较低的RMSE (15.02) 和MAE (21.53).
- 在流量预测准确度方面,LSTM-NN模型的表现优于MLR模型.
- 当与LSTM-NN模型配对时,CHIRPS数据显示出高于CPC数据的性能.
结论:
- 基于CHIRPS卫星的降雨数据是一种可行和有效的替代方案,可以替代基于测量器的CPC数据,用于研究区域的流量预测.
- LSTM-NN模型是比MLR更有效的流量预测工具,提供更高的准确性.
- 这些发现支持使用卫星数据和机器学习来实现成本效益和可靠的水资源管理.
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