在环境和社会经济变化下的肯尼亚SGR走廊内的Mbagathi和Stony Athi水域的水安全
Catherine C Sang1,2, Daniel O Olago2
1Department of Environmental Planning, Sustainability and Geoinformatics, University of Eldoret, 30100 Eldoret, Kenya.
概括
城市化和气候变化正在增加半干旱地区的水资源短缺. 在Mbagathi-Stony Athi分捕获区的这项研究显示,需求上升和供应下降,未来的预测表明,如果没有可持续的水资源管理,情况将恶化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 由于城市化,人口增长,土地利用变化和气候变化,水资源不安全是一个日益严重的全球性挑战.
- 姆巴加蒂-斯托尼·阿提 (Mbagathi-Stony Athi) 副捕捞区面临着严重的供水和需求压力,特别是由于在半干旱环境中快速城市化.
研究的目的:
- 为了检查Mbagathi-Stony Athi分捕获区的供水和需求趋势.
- 突出城市化对该半干旱地区水资源的具体影响.
- 在各种气候和土地使用情景下预测未来的水供应和需求.
主要方法:
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 用于土地使用分析.
- 水资源评估和规划 (WEAP) 模型用于模拟不同的水资源管理场景.
- 分析历史 (1981-2019) 和预计 (2063) 的气候数据 (降雨量,温度).
主要成果:
- 年降雨量 (1981-2019) 增加不大,预计到2063年降雨量将增加12.43% (RCP 4.5) 至21.02% (RCP 8.5).
- 在2000-2019年期间,建筑面积显著增加 (53.67%) 和湿地减少 (99.32%) .
- 每年的供水,需求和未满足的需求分别增加了171.64%,147.56%和73% (2000-2019).
- 由于土地使用变化,表面流水减少 (-25.51%) 和蒸发透气增加 (+3.55%).
- 预计到2063年,水需求将增加到184%,未满足的需求将增加到162.47%.
结论:
- 预计Mbagathi-Stony Athi分采集区的水资源短缺将加剧. 预计将加剧.
- 气候变化,加上城市化和土地利用转变,显著影响到水的可用性.
- 调查结果强调,在发展走廊中迫切需要可持续的水资源管理战略.
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