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在太平洋西北地区的生态利基模型和灰钻机的潜在分散

Gengping Zhu¹, Max Ragozzino², Mark Cody Holthouse²

¹Department of Entomology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.

Journal of economic entomology

|July 15, 2025

概括

侵袭性石灰挖掘机威胁太平洋西北地区的灰树. 模型预测其快速传播,需要加强隔离和监测工作,以保护脆弱的生态系统.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
侵袭性物种管理侵袭性物种管理
森林昆虫学森林昆虫学

背景情况:

石灰 (Agrilus planipennis) 是一种侵袭性甲虫,可以破坏灰树 (Fraxinus spp.). 在北美. 在北美. 在北美. 在北美.
最近在俄勒冈州和不列颠哥伦比亚省的检测引起了人们对其扩散到太平洋西北部生态系统的担忧.

研究的目的:

通过息地适应性模型和分散模拟,预测太平洋西北地区的灰钻机的潜在传播.
为了确定合适的息地,并预测入侵的时间表,以进行有针对性的管理.

主要方法:

已建立和新发现的石灰挖掘机种群的气候利基比较.
利用息地适应性模型绘制潜在分布图.
采用分散模拟来预测随时间推移的分散动态.

主要成果:

新建立的人口占据狭窄的气候,在太平洋西北地区有充足的适合性,未被占用的息地.
适合息地延伸到俄勒冈州的隔离区以南,并向北延伸到华盛顿.
分散模型预测华盛顿将在2年内入侵,俄勒冈西部将在15年内入侵,加利福尼亚州将在20年内入侵.

结论:

石灰钻机在太平洋西北地区的范围扩张具有显著的潜力.
密集的检疫工作至关重要,重点关注模型识别的区域.
监测和管理应优先考虑具有高息地适宜性和接近当前感染的地区.

关键词:

分散模拟模拟的分散.息地的适宜性息地的适宜性侵入性物种是一种入侵性物种.种类分布模型的物种分布模型.

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