PM2.5-气象相互作用引发儿科mycoplasma pneumoniae流行病的关键暴露窗口:一个年龄分层分布式滞后非线性建模方法
Fei Wang1, Wanjie Huang1, Feng Shi2
1Department of Pediatrics, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, 110000, China.
高PM2.5,温度和湿度增加了童年Mycoplasma pneumoniae感染 (MPI) 的风险和严重程度. 这些环境因素需要有针对性的公共卫生战略,特别是在极端天气条件下.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 儿科 儿科 儿科
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 菌性肺炎感染 (MPI) 在儿童中越来越令人担忧,导致严重的肺炎和死亡.
- 了解空气污染和天气对MPI的影响对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查PM2.5,温度和湿度与儿童MPI之间的联系.
- 分析与环境因素相关的门诊和住院严重MPI (SMPP) 病例.
主要方法:
- 一项大规模研究分析了中国东北部 (2017-2023) 391,559名儿童的数据.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型来评估PM2.5,温度和湿度的影响.
- 进行了敏感性分析,以评估COVID-19爆发前后的趋势.
主要成果:
- 升高的PM2.5水平 (60-100μg/m3),特别是在10天的滞后后,显示出非线性关联与增加的门诊MPI,特别是在学龄前儿童中.
- 在温度和门诊MPI之间观察到正相关性,峰值为20°C-30°C,延迟10天. 高温也增加了女性MPP/SMPP的风险.
- 湿度与门诊MPI呈现出U形的关联,湿度在20%和100%时风险增加. 高湿度与女性和学龄儿童中SMPP风险增加有关.
结论:
- 高度的PM2.5,高温和极端的湿度水平与儿童MPI的发病率和严重程度的增加显著相关.
- 研究结果强调需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施,以减轻不利环境条件对儿科呼吸道感染的影响.
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