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在非正式风险分担机制中的战略竞争与集体指数保险相比
Lichen Wang1, Shijia Hua1, Yuyuan Liu1
1College of Science, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, People's Republic of China.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|July 15, 2025
概括
指数保险和非正式的风险共享策略使用进化游戏模型进行比较. 最佳采用取决于基础风险,损失比率和风险回避,影响未来的保险市场销售.
科学领域:
- 灾害风险管理 灾害风险管理
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 游戏理论的游戏理论.
背景情况:
- 自然灾害需要有效的风险管理策略,从非正式的社区共享发展到正式的指数保险.
- 指数保险提供理论风险转移,但面临着基础风险和定价等实际挑战.
- 对指数保险对非正式风险分担机制的竞争力需要进一步研究.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个由三个战略组成的进化游戏模型,比较正式的指数保险,非正式的风险共享和非保险策略.
- 引入一种计算保险公司利的方法,以帮助最佳的指数保险定价.
- 分析基础风险,损失比率和风险回避对保险采用和市场销售的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个由三个战略组成的进化游戏模型:正式的指数保险 (I),非正式的风险共享 (R) 和非保险 (N).
- 为保险公司引入利计算方法以优化定价.
- 分析影响战略采用的因素,包括基础风险,损失比率和风险回避.
主要成果:
- 基准风险和风险损失比率显著影响保险采用率.
- 指数保险受益于低基准风险和高损失比率.
- 非正规的风险分担是中等损失比率的首选,而低损失比率导致非保险采用.
结论:
- 准确评估风险回避和适当的风险分担比率对于预测指数保险市场销售至关重要.
- 该研究提供了关于正式和非正式风险管理策略之间的竞争动态的见解.
- 调查结果可以为开发更有效,更具竞争力的指数保险产品提供信息.
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