对老年易受伤害的道路使用者的安全贡献因素分析:一般和地方观点
Xueyu Zhang1, Xuesong Wang1, Mohamed Abdel-Aty2
1College of Transportation, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201804, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|July 16, 2025
概括
年长的道路使用者面临着交通安全风险,受人口密度和医疗保健准入等因素的影响. 这项研究使用先进的模型来确定高风险区域,并为老年行人和非机动车辆用户提供有针对性的安全改进信息.
科学领域:
- 交通安全研究 交通安全研究
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 老年人是一个脆弱的道路使用者群体,需要进行特定的交通安全分析.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了老年道路使用者安全方面的空间异质性和零膨胀撞车数据.
- 了解碰撞因素和老年道路使用者事故之间的空间关系至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种综合的分析方法,用于探索老年易受伤害的道路使用者 (VRU) 发生事故的因素.
- 在较旧的VRU碰撞分析中解决零膨胀碰撞数据和空间异质性.
- 确定影响较旧VRU机事故的关键社会经济,道路网络和公共设施因素.
主要方法:
- 使用梯度树增强的Tweedie复合Poisson模型 (TDboost) 进行零膨胀撞击数据分析.
- 利用地理加权随机森林 (GWRF) 揭示了撞车影响因素的空间异质性.
- 在电网单元内收集关于社会经济,道路网络,公共设施和交通执法因素的数据.
主要成果:
- 人口和医疗保健的准入是较旧VRU机事故的重要预测因素.
- 关键影响因素表现出非线性效应,与较旧的行人和非机动车辆 (NMV) 撞车事故有积极的相关性.
- 与传统模型相比,TDboost模型在处理零膨胀数据和复杂因子效应方面表现出卓越的性能.
结论:
- 该研究强调了在较旧的VRU碰撞分析中考虑空间异质性和非线性效应的重要性.
- 建议在老年人度较高的地区进行有针对性的安全干预,例如在医疗机构和交通站附近.
- 这些发现倡导适应当地条件的空间定制策略,以提高老年道路使用者的交通安全.
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