在亚热带季风气候下,对小麦和玉米的气候诱导产量变化和适应的影响进行建模 - 使用模糊逻辑
Md Abdul Kaium1,2, Md Sharif Ahmed1,2, Muhammad Habib-Ur-Rahman3
1Department of Crop Science and Technology, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh.
Scientific reports
|July 16, 2025
概括
气候变化对作物产量产生重大影响. 这项研究开发了智能适应策略,包括小麦和玉米的最佳播种窗口,以减轻气候风险并确保孟加拉国的粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化的极端天气事件威胁到农作物生产.
- 可持续农业需要先进的气候风险评估和适应战略.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对孟加拉国西北部小麦和玉米产量的影响.
- 制定数据驱动的适应策略,以尽量减少与气候有关的产量损失.
主要方法:
- 利用机器学习方法在气候变化场景下预测未来的作物产量.
- 应用了一个含有气候变量 (温度,降雨) 的模糊逻辑模型来估计可能的产量.
- 确定了小麦和玉米的最佳播种窗口,以减少气候风险.
主要成果:
- 气候变化对小麦和玉米的现象学阶段产生了负面影响,导致产量大幅下降.
- 最佳温度和降雨量的变化极大地影响了作物产量.
- 由于高温,玉米的夏季产量低于冬季产量.
结论:
- 确定了最佳种植窗口:小麦 (11月1日至7日),玉米冬季 (11月1日至10日),玉米夏季 (2月20日至3月7日).
- 这些适应措施提高了粮食安全,减少了气候变化风险.
- 该方法适用于类似的季风气候,并支持可持续发展目标2,13和14.
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