基于随机森林回归模型的沙漠草原蒸发的模拟和分析
Haitao Chen1, Nishi Chu1, Aiqing Kang2
1College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.
Scientific reports
|July 16, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种随机森林回归模型,以准确模拟中国干旱草原的蒸发转化 (ET). 该模型有效地解决了数据稀缺问题,确定了降水和湿日频率作为水资源管理的关键驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 蒸发转化 (ET) 对沙漠草原的水和能量循环至关重要.
- 由于数据稀缺性和异质性,在干旱地区建模ET具有挑战性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个强大的模型来模拟中国沙漠草原的外星人.
- 确定影响干旱草原生态系统中ET的关键气候驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 使用一个随机森林回归 (RF-R) 模型.
- 综合高分辨率PML-V2 ET数据和CRU气象数据集 (2001-2020年).
- 对BPNN和SVR进行模型性能评估,并确定了关键的气候因素.
主要成果:
- 射频-R模型表现出高精度,R2为0.953 (训练) 和0.931 (测试).
- 实现了低RMSE (3.421毫米/月训练,4.182毫米/月测试) 和预测偏差 (11.815%).
- 降水和湿天的频率被确定为主要的ET驱动因素.
结论:
- 该RF-R模型为ET模拟在数据稀缺的干旱地区提供了可靠的框架.
- 这些发现支持针对性水资源管理,以恢复沙漠草原.
- 强调了干旱草原ET降雨和湿日频率的重要性.
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