基于区域间人口流动性的医疗保健资源动态建模及其应用
Jiaming Guo1, Beibei Yan2, Yanli Yang1
1School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
Frontiers in public health
|July 17, 2025
概括
人口流动性对传染病传播和疫情期间的医疗保健压力产生重大影响. 了解这些动态对于有效的流行病应对和资源分配策略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 急性传染病爆发对医疗保健系统构成重大挑战.
- 人口流动是影响流行病进展和资源需求的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 评估区域间人口流动对流行病进展的影响.
- 评估人口流动对流行病期间医疗保健资源拥堵的影响.
- 在疫情爆发期间为人口控制和资源分配提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 使用SARS-CoV-2数据和迁移指数开发了一个动态的医疗保健资源模型.
- 案例研究包括两个城市对:"太原-金钟"和"林-云".
- 关键指标包括累积病例,医疗资源拥堵的发病时间和持续时间.
主要成果:
- 人口流动影响累积病例和医疗保健资源拥堵.
- 单向的流动限制产生了多种影响,减少了流出地区的病例,但增加了流入地区的病例.
- 双向限制显示出基于区域患病率的不同影响,影响病例数量和资源拥堵持续时间.
结论:
- 开发的模型有效地模拟了人口流动,流行病传播和医疗保健资源紧张之间的相互作用.
- 该模型可以为在公共卫生紧急情况期间优化医疗保健资源分配提供有针对性的干预信息.
- 这种方法有助于制流行病,减轻医疗系统的压力,并最大限度地减少社会经济破坏.
相关概念视频
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
87
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
87
Analysis of Population Pharmacokinetic Data
390
Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data involves studying the behavior of drugs within diverse populations to understand their pharmacokinetic parameters. Traditional pharmacokinetic methods typically involve collecting samples from a few individuals and estimating these parameters. While these methods are commonly used, they have limitations in capturing the variability in drug response among individuals or heterogeneous populations. Population pharmacokinetics is employed to address these...
390
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
1.7K
The person's health status fluctuates continually, varying from being in good health to becoming ill and returning to being healthy. To understand the concept of illness prevention, there are two models. First, the health-illness continuum model is a graphic representation of an individual's wellness. It states that a person is considered healthy in the absence of physical disease and the presence of good emotional health.
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
1.7K
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention I
2.2K
A model is a theoretical way to understand a concept or an idea. Models can overcome barriers to health regardless of diverse economic and cultural backgrounds. In addition, models make the task easier by providing different ways to approach complex issues. There are two major health promotion models: the health belief model and the health promotion model.
The health belief model (HBM) attempts to predict health-related behavior in specific belief patterns. According to the HBM, a person's...
The health belief model (HBM) attempts to predict health-related behavior in specific belief patterns. According to the HBM, a person's...
2.2K
Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Distributed Parameter Models
129
Pharmacokinetic models are mathematical constructs that represent and predict the time course of drug concentrations in the body, providing meaningful pharmacokinetic parameters. These models are categorized into compartment, physiological, and distributed parameter models.
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
129
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
102
Mechanistic models play a crucial role in algorithms for numerical problem-solving, particularly in nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NMEM). These models aim to minimize specific objective functions by evaluating various parameter estimates, leading to the development of systematic algorithms. In some cases, linearization techniques approximate the model using linear equations.
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
102


